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Making sense of the financial crisis

Wed, Oct 08, 2008
Myrna Anderson

On Thursday, September 25, 2008鈥攖he day Congress proposed a $700 billion rescue of the U.S. financial system鈥擟alvin business professor Leonard Van Drunen and economics professor Scott Vander Linde sat down with communication and marketing's senior writer Myrna Anderson for a conversation about the crisis. Van Drunen worked in various roles at JP Morgan before coming to Calvin, and Vander Linde has taught at Calvin for 24 years.

How did the current financial crisis come about?

Van Drunen: In short, Americans have borrowed way too much money in the last 10 years, way more than they can ever pay back, borrowed on the premise that housing prices will keep going up. Therefore, many Americans are not able to pay their debt.

Can you explain the role of subprime mortgages in this crisis?

Vander Linde: A subprime mortgage is basically a mortgage that has a high risk of default, meaning that the borrower is unlikely to be able to pay back the loan. Many mortgages became subprime in recent years because lenders were very lenient in the mortgage application process鈥攄idn't require enough collateral or income behind the loan and required little or no down payment. In the past, credit markets were more restrictive and didn鈥檛 allow people to take mortgages without substantial proof of being able to pay the lender back. On the lender side recently, any kind of mortgage sold was desirable as the lender received commissions on whatever mortgages it sold, regardless of risk of default. The risk was shifted by an almost immediate re-sale of the mortgage to some of the financial institutions that are now in trouble. There was great desire in world financial markets for financial instruments backed by U.S. mortgages fueling this whole borrowing and lending culture.

Van Drunen: There鈥檚 some good news and bad news with that. The good news is that many Americans have been more able to afford housing. The bad news is that, when times are tough, people lose their jobs鈥攁nd they can鈥檛 pay their loans, and they get kicked out of their houses. So, that鈥檚 the backdrop in America. In America, there鈥檚 a strong public policy and a private philosophy that home ownership is important. That鈥檚 a great thing鈥攂ut now we鈥檙e paying for that.

Why didn鈥檛 regulations on mortgagers prevent this from happening?

Van Drunen: The basic philosophy of regulation in the U.S. is to let the market regulate itself. There are some regulations, right? You鈥檙e not allowed to lie. You鈥檙e not allowed to steal. You have to disclose information. But in America, we鈥檙e allowed to do stupid things. People are going to look back at this financial crisis and say, 鈥淭he government鈥檚 at fault.鈥 I don鈥檛 buy that. The government isn鈥檛 in existence to protect people and private companies from making bad decisions. You鈥檒l read it in the newspapers that some little old lady really didn鈥檛 know what she was getting into, and some unscrupulous mortgage broker fooled her into this. Some of that happened, but that鈥檚 not the main problem. I think what is really going on is that everybody thought housing prices would keep going up, and the banks lent more than they could ever get back, and homeowners borrowed more money than they could ever repay.

Vander Linde: And this is a piece that I think is being missed in the media somehow. Not only was this mess built on the premise that housing would always continue to rise in value, but it was also premised on a historical trend in the mortgage re-selling market鈥攖hat only a relatively small percentage of mortgages ever default. But because of the change in the culture of lending and borrowing, we end up with a 30-to-40 or more percent default rate on mortgages in some of the mortgage investment packages. This can cause a big drop in the value of some of the assets held by Wall Street firms.

Why are American taxpayers responsible to pay for this gigantic bailout?

Van Drunen: Because the overall economic system is closed. If the American financial system has lent a lot of money to the American people, and it doesn鈥檛 get paid back, that leaves a big hole. Someone has got to plug it. If it becomes too big, it comes back to the general population. On the whole it鈥檚 fair. But you drill down a little bit. Why should a guy like me鈥攚ho has never defaulted on a loan, never borrowed too much money鈥攚hy should I have to pay this much? As an individual, it doesn鈥檛 feel very good.

Vander Linde: The markets need a clear signal that there鈥檚 a plan to clean up the financial crisis. If financial markets continue downward, not only will wealth decline, but spending by consumers and businesses could stagnate greatly; that will mean a lot of lost jobs as well as lost wealth. So, my point of view as a macroeconomist is to buoy financial markets to stop an economic slide. I resonate with one thing President Bush said in his speech the other night, 鈥淚t鈥檚 not about pointing fingers at this point. We need some pretty significant action right now.鈥

What kinds of restrictions would you like to see on this bailout?

Van Drunen: If I鈥檓 going to spend $700 billion, I want to make sure it doesn鈥檛 go to the managers and the shareholders of these institutions鈥

Vander Linde: And I don鈥檛 want the money going to the borrowers who were looking for their own little golden parachutes.

Van Drunen: That鈥檚 what Congress is debating. For instance, when the government bailed out AIG, their condition was that senior executives had to retire without parachutes.

What are the implications of this crisis and the bailout鈥攁nd the bailouts perhaps yet to come鈥攐n students who are just graduating from college and starting their lives?

Van Drunen: I鈥檓 more worried about the 70-year-old who is retired and has money in the stock market, and it鈥檚 gone way down.

Vander Linde: Even with a bailout, the economy鈥檚 growth will be very slow for at least a year or more as it is bordering on recession now. That鈥檚 a tough market to graduate into. Over the longer haul, the economy and the financial markets will recover, but without help, I believe we could experience something much worse than we care to think about. We will be fine if action is taken. I鈥檓 not painting any rosy picture of the future.

Van Drunen:  I鈥檓 glad I鈥檓 not retiring this year.

Vander Linde: It would give one pause.

Van Drunen: In an ideal world, this would never have happened.